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Showing posts with label #Jan25. Show all posts
Showing posts with label #Jan25. Show all posts

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Will Egypt's Army weigh down the Revolution?

Egypt's ruling military council in session
Guest post by veteran Middle East publisher F. Najia

"With the Army overburdening the Revolution instead of shoring it up, I am afraid this wonderful fleeting moment in Egypt will slip from our hands, causing us to lose a unique opportunity to fulfill our dream."

Fahmi Howeidi, Egypt’s foremost columnist, whose weekly think pieces are syndicated across the Arab world, expressed the concern this week.

He writes:

Facts on the ground show a perceptible gap emerging between expectations and practices.  Revolution means abolishing a regime, closing its chapter and building a new and dissimilar one to replace it. What is happening in Egypt is not exactly that.

Those running the affairs of state since the Revolution’s triumph see what took place in a different light. Evidence is in a sitting premier (who has now been replaced) and three government ministers who have been disowned by the people. Governors, university presidents and information and security leaders are still in office as well. This translates into a revamped edition of the old regime. It is as if the sacrifices made -- by millions of Egyptians who took to the streets to challenge the pre-January 25 order and by the thousands who were killed, injured, maimed, tortured, abducted or reported missing -- were meant to give the old regime a facelift.

At the same time, the task of politically inexperienced military leaders who stepped in is colossal. Thirty years of political paralysis and economic corruption landed on their lap, plus all sorts of external pressures and previous commitments to the far and the near – chiefly the United States and Israel. So the Military are not in an enviable position and their excuses are at times justified.

Where do we go from here?

To answer, we have to agree on who specifically launched the Revolution and paid its price. Was it the Army that launched it in support of the people, or was it the public who sparked the Revolution before the Army intervened in solidarity? 

The indisputable fact is the public moved first, led the revolt and paid the price. The army later stepped in to perform its national duty and protect the public.

This to say the public started the Revolution and the Army stepped in to protect it.

What happens if the public wants a bona fide Revolution and a new regime while the Army opts for a quasi-revolution that simply revamps the Mubarak regime?

My answer is the public is the Revolution’s landlord. “The Army which declared its solidarity with the public should continue performing its role and heeding its demands. Should the gap between public demands and the Army sponsoring the government persist and widen, it would mean the Army has gone back on its word. Instead of being the guardian and prop of the Revolution it becomes an obstacle to realizing its objectives. I hope the days ahead will dispel the suspicion.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Exit Hosni Mubarak, Enter Sami Anan?

Guest post by veteran Middle East publisher F. Najia

Whether Hosni Mubarak goes any time soon or hangs on until the end of his mandate in September, the $64,000 question remains: Who picks up the baton?

I believe the Egyptian Armed Forces will not only engineer the succession, but that an active or former officer will succeed Mubarak as president.

Here is my take on the standing of four military and two civilian front-runners:

For:           
Vice President and Military Intelligence chief
Against:
Considered Mubarak II by #jan25
Backers:
Egyptian military, U.S., Israel
Rating:
*****

For:
Commander in chief of the Egyptian Armed Forces
Against:
Incumbent Defense Minister
Backers:
Egyptian military, U.S., Israel, most Arab states
Rating:
*****

For:
Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces since 2005
Against:
Little
Backers:
Egyptian public and military, U.S., Israel, most Arab states
Rating:
*****

For:
Civilian with distinguished Egyptian Air Force career
Against:
Incumbent Prime Minister
Backers:
Egyptian military, U.S., Israel, most Arab states
Rating:
*****

For:
Scholar, diplomat, Nobel laureate and former IAEA chief
Against:
Long residence abroad
Backers:
Lukewarm public support, few Arab states
Rating:
*****

For:
Secretary General of the Arab League since 2001 and former Foreign Minister
Against:
Anathema to U.S. and Israel and Moslem Brotherhood
Backers:
Respectable proportion of Egyptian public and Arab states
Rating:
*****


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Friday, February 4, 2011

Egypt: “The Camel versus Facebook”

Photo from AlJazeera Online

Guest post by veteran Middle East publisher F. Najia

Tarek A. Alhomayed, editor in chief of the Saudi newspaper of records Asharq al-Awsat, Friday compares the continuing face-off between pro- and anti-Mubarak protesters in Egypt to one between a camel and Facebook

He says whoever incited Mubarak supporters to gallop on camels and horses and charge into youths massing Tahrir Square “committed a deadly and unpardonable mistake against Egypt and President Mubarak in person…

“Is it permissible for this to mark the end of the Egyptian president’s regime? Shame!”

Instead of “camel,” Egyptian-born American scholar Dr. Mamoun Fandy, writes in the same vein on the same day in the same newspaper of “The Donkey versus Facebook.” He says “mule versus Facebook” has been his answer to those asking him, “Where is Egypt heading?” 

He says what caught his eye in the scenes unfolding on Tahrir Square was of a young man raising a placard where he had scribbled, “Time you [Mubarak] left… My arm is hurting.” 

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